Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika

The peer-reviewed scientific and technology journal. ISSN: 0204-3327

Nuclear perspectives at exhausting trends of traditional energy resources

11/28/2017 2017 - #04 Current issues in nuclear energy

Uliyanin Y.A. Kharitonov V.V. Yurshina D.Yu.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26583/npe.2017.4.01

UDC: 621.039, 553.495 (063, 470

For the first time analytical relationships have been obtained between the production of energy at nuclear power plants in the world and their supply with natural uranium in conditions of the exhaustion of traditional resources until the end of the current century. The article represents the results of forecasting the dynamics of a possible shortage of traditional energy resources – hydrocarbons (coal, oil, natural gas) and natural uranium, increasing over time due to the growth of energy requirements (at a rate of 1-2% per year), on the one hand, and exhaustion non-renewable resources, on the other hand. The forecast is based on modern geological data on recoverable hydrocarbon and uranium reserves, as well as on a mathematical model of dynamics of non-renewable resource extraction, developed by the authors. All variants of calculations show that within the framework of the current paradigm of dealing with the traditional sources of energy, their reserves will be largely exhausted before the end of this century, and peaks of their production are expected until the middle of the century. The dynamics of the installed capacity of modern nuclear power plants will repeat the dynamics of the exhaustion of natural uranium, and the contribution of nuclear power plants to the energy provision of humankind will decrease, increasing the total deficit of traditional energy sources. Nevertheless, by 2100 year, the contribution of nuclear energy (on thermal neutrons) to primary sources can increase to 10%, because hydrocarbons will run out even faster than uranium. However, this amount of nuclear energy will be negligible compared to the demand for primary energy after the 1940s, even at the lowest growth rate of demand (at a rate of 1% per year). The growing difference between the increasing energy needs and the declining supply of exhaustible traditional energy resources makes it necessary to develop nuclear breeding – the expanded reproduction of artificial nuclear fuel (239Pu from 238U and, possibly, 233U from 232Th) no later than the 30s of the current century.

References

  1. White Book of Nuclear Energy. Ed. by Adamov E.O. Moscow. NIKIET Publ., 2001. 270 p. (in Russian).
  2. Avrorin E.N., Adamov E.O., Aleksakhin R.M., Dgalavyan A.V., Dragunov Y.G., Ivanov V.B., Kalyakin S.G. Lopatkin A.V., Molokanov N.A., Muravyev E.V., Orlov V.V., Rachkov V.I., Smirnov V.P., Troyanov V.M. Strategy Concepts of Nuclear Energy Development in Russia at 21st Century. Moscow. NIKIET Publ., 2012. 62 p. (in Russian).
  3. Kharitonov V.V. Dynamic of nuclear energy development. Economic models. Moscow. MEPhI Publ., 2014. 328 p. (in Russian).
  4. INPRO Methodology for Sustainability Assessment of Nuclear Energy Systems: Economics. INPRO Manual. IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NG-T-4.4. IAEA, Vienna, 2014. – 103 p.
  5. Velikhov E.P., Gagarinskiy A.Y., Subbotin S.A., Tsibulskiy V.F. Energy in Economics of the XXI century. Moscow. IzdAT Publ., 2010. 176 p. (in Russian).
  6. Kontorovich A.E., Epov M.I., Eder L.V. Long-term and medium-term factors and scenarios of global energy system in the XXI century. Geologiya i Geofyzika, 2014, v. 55, no. 5-6, pp. 689-700. (in Russian).
  7. Laverov N.P. Fuel-energy resources: condition, dynamics of development, security. Part 1. The World. Lecture in MUCTR D. Mendeleev, 2011. Available at http://borgolova.ampei.ru/sustainable/tek/reserves/laverov (in Russian).
  8. Sinev M.N. Economics of Nuclear Energy. Fundamentals of Technology and Economics of Nuclear Fuel Production. Moscow. Energoatomizdat Publ., 1987. 320 p. (in Russian).
  9. Borisevitch V.D., Borman V.D., Sulaberidze G.A. Basic Physics of Isotopes Separation in Gas Centrifuge. Moscow. MEPhI Publ., 2005. 320 p. (in Russian).
  10. World Nuclear Association. Information Library. Available at http://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library.aspx
  11. Hubbert M. King. Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels. American Petroleum Institute. Publication No. 95. Shell Development Company. June, 1956, pp. 1-40. Available at http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf
  12. Kharitonov V.V., Kabashev K.V., Malikov R.R. Long-term Exhausting Trends of Traditional Energy Resources and Nuclear Energy Perspectives. Moscow. MEPhI Publ., 2016. 96 p. (in Russian).
  13. Harald Ulrik Sverdrup, Deniz Koca1 and Kristin Vala Ragnarsdottir. Peak Metals, Minerals, Energy, Wealth, Food and Population; Urgent Policy Considerations for A Sustainable Society. Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering B 1. 2012, no. 5, pp. 499-533.
  14. Kharitonov V.V., Kabashev K.V. Analytical Model of Metals Mining Dynamics. Tsvetnye Metally. 2012, no. 10, pp. 20-24 (in Russian).
  15. Uranium 2016: Resources, Production and Demand. A Joint Report by the Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. OECD 2016. 550 р.
  16. Zhivov V. L., Boytsov A. V., Shumilin M. V. Uranium : Geology, Extraction, Economics. Moscow. All-Russian Scientific-Research Institute of Mineral Raw Materials n.a. N. M. Fedorovskiy Publ., 2012. 304 p. (in Russian).
  17. Tarkhanov A.V. Modern Trends of World and Russian Uranium Industry (2007 – 2012). Minerals. Economic-geological series, No. 33. Moscow. All-Russian Scientific-Research Institute of Mineral Raw Materials n.a. N. M. Fedorovskiy Publ., 2012. 53 p. (in Russian).
  18. BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June 2017. Available at http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
  19. BP Energy Outlook. 2017 edition. Available at http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/energy-economics/energy-outlook-2017/bp-energy-outlook-2017.pdf
  20. REthinking Energy 2017. Accelerating the global energy transformation. International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Abu Dhabi, 2017. 130 p.
  21. World Energy. Issues Monitor 2017. World Energy Council, 2017. 156 р.
  22. Energy [R]Evolution. A Sustainable USA Energy Outlook. Greenpeace International; European Renewable Energy Council (EREC); Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). Report 3rd edition, 2014 USA energy scenario. 87 р.
  23. Aldo Vieira da Rosa. Fundamentals of Renewable Energy Processes. Elsevier Inc. 2005. 704 p.
  24. Adamov E.O., Ganev I.K. Ecologically Pure Nuclear Energy. Moscow. NIKIET Publ., 2007. 147 p. (in Russian).
  25. The Generation IV International Forum. Available at https://www.gen-4.org/gif/jcms/c_9260/public
  26. Poplavsky Vladimir, Chebeskov Alexander. State of the Art and Trends of Development of Fast Reactor Technology. Proceedings of GLOBAL 2011 International Conference, Makuhari, Japan, December 11-16, 2011, Paper No. 357127.

nuclear energy fuel burnup fraction natural uranium non-renewable traditional energy resources hydrocarbons production dynamics production rate production peak nuclear reactor breeders

Link for citing the article: Uliyanin Y.A., Kharitonov V.V., Yurshina D.Yu. Nuclear perspectives at exhausting trends of traditional energy resources. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika. 2017, no. 4, pp. 5-16; DOI: https://doi.org/10.26583/npe.2017.4.01 (in Russian).

Open PDF file