Methodology for Calculating the Criteria of Economic Efficiency of Investments in Nuclear Icebreakers
UDC: 621.039.58; 656.61
The authors propose an economic and analytical model for evaluating the criteria of efficiency (profitability) of investments in the projects of innovative nuclear icebreakers of the Northern Sea Route. The model is based on the new analytical representation of the methodology for forecasting the investment project efficiency that is widely used in international practice. The mathematical expression for the net discounted income provides convenient formulas for calculating several investment efficiency criteria for nuclear icebreakers: internal rate of return, minimum annual revenues from icebreaker convoys, discounted payback period, and the sheer volume of delivered cargo. The paper gives estimates of the criteria for the efficiency of investments in Leader class icebreakers that depend on the discount rate of cash flows, capital, and operating costs. It is shown that at such high capital costs, typical for construction of Leader class nuclear icebreakers, the minimum allowable revenue of an icebreaker is a financial burden for ships transporting cargo along the NSR, which also increases rapidly with the growth of discount rate and the reduction of investment payback period. This means that the profitability of the icebreakers is only possible at low discount rates of 2 – 3% per year, that is, at extremely low interest credit. Even with low interest and very optimistic production characteristics of the icebreaker (high speed of navigation, large number of ships in the caravan and their capacity) the payback period will exceed 25 years.
- Kashka M.M., Irlica L.A., Efanskaya E.A., Matvijshina K.A., Golovinskij S.A. The role of the nuclear icebreaker fleet in achieving the national task of increasing the volume of cargo traffic in the water area of the Northern Sea Route. Arktika: Ekologiya i Ekonomika. 2021, no. 1, pp. 101-110 (in Russian).
- Kashka M.M., Smirnov A.A., Golovinskij S.A., Vorob’ev V.M., Ryzhkov A.V., Babich E.M. Prospects for the development of the nuclear icebreaker fleet. Arktika: Ekologiya i Ekonomika. 2016, no. 3, pp. 98-107 (in Russian).
- Ruksha V.V., Golovinskij S.A., Belkin M.S. Icebreaking support for the largest national Arctic hydrocarbon projects. Arktika: Ekologiya i Ekonomika. 2016, no. 4, pp. 109-113 (in Russian).
- Knyazevskij K.Yu. Development of the nuclear icebreaker fleet to support the largest national Arctic projects. Available at https://www.nevatinter.com/files/File/2019/ material/1809/atomflot.pdf (accessed Apr. 10, 2021) (in Russian).
- Sarkisov A.A., Smolentsev D.O., Antipov S.V., Bilashenko V.P., Shvedov P.A. Economic efficiency and possibilities of using nuclear power sources of megawatt class in the Arctic. Arktika: Ekologiya i Ekonomika. 2018, no.1, pp. 4-14 (in Russian).
- Frolov I.E. Development of the Russian Arctic Zone: Problems of Reconstruction of Transport and Military Infrastructures. Problemy Prognozirovaniya. 2015, no. 6, pp.67-74 (in Russian).
- ROSATOM Key Results. Annual Reports 2015-2020. Available at: https://rosatom.ru/about/gosudarstvennye-uslugi/otchetnost-fz-goskorporatsii-rosatom/ (accessed Apr. 10, 2021) (in Russian).
- Frolov I.E. Russian high-technology complex under low inflation and government support limitation: the condition, capacity and tendencies for development. Problemy Prognozirovaniya. 2019, no. 4, pp. 3-15 (in Russian).
- Federal Law No. 94-FZ, April 20, 2021. About Making Changes to the Article 51 Code of Merchant Shipping of the Russian Federation. Rossiyskaya Gazeta. No. 88(8439), April 23, 2021. Available at: https://rg.ru/2021/04/23/moreplavanie-dok.html (in Russian).
- Zverev D.L., Fadeev Yu.P., Pakhomov A.N., Galickih V.Yu., Polunichev V.I., Veshnyakov K.B., Kabin, S.V. Turusov A.Yu. Reactor installations for nuclear icebreakers. Creation experience and modern state. Atomnaya Energiya. 2020, v. 129, iss. 1, pp. 29-37 (in Russian).
- RITM. Reactor Plants for Nuclear Icebreakers and Optimized Floating Power Units. Nizhny Novgorod. JSC «Afrikantov OKBM» Publ., 2020, 12 p. (in Russian).
- Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 11 from Jan. 15, 2020. On the Implementation of Budgetary Investments in the Construction of the Lead Nuclear Icebreaker of Project 10510 «Leader». Available at: http://government.ru/docs/all/125813/ (accessed Apr. 04, 2021) (in Russian).
- Knyazevskij K.Yu., Fadeev Yu.P., Pakhomov A.N., Polunichev V.I., Veshnyakov K.B., Kabin S.V. Design solutions for the RITM-200 reactor facility, designed to ensure environmentally safe and cost-effective operation of a universal nuclear icebreaker on the Arctic routes. Arktika: Ekologiya i Ekonomika. 2014, no. 3, pp. 86-91 (in Russian).
- Mu Aril’d. Arctic Economy: What’s Missing? An example of the Northern Sea Route. EKO. 2020, no. 12, pp. 62-83 (in Russian).
- Zagorodnikov M.A. Improvement of tariffs for icebreaker assistance. Upravlencheskoe Konsul’tirovanie. 2017, no. 6, pp. 127-132 (in Russian).
- Order of the Federal Tariff Service (FST Russia) No. 45-t/1 from Mar. 4, 2014. On the Approval of Tariffs for Icebreaker Assistance of Ships Provided by FSUE Atomflot in the Water Area of the Northern Sea Route. Available at: http://www.rosatomflot.ru/img/all/2_0_prikaz_45_t_1_ot_04_03_14.pdf (accessed Apr. 04, 2021) (in Russian).
- Annex to the Order of the Federal Tariff Service dated March 4, 2014 46-t/2. Rules for the Application of Tariffs for Icebreaker Assistance of Ships in the Water Area of the Northern Sea Route. Available at: https://minjust.consultant.ru/documents/9542?items=1&page=3 (accessed Apr. 04, 2021) (in Russian).
- Kharitonov V.V., Kosolapov N.V., Ul’yanin Yu.A. Forecasting the effectiveness of investments in multi-unit power plants. Vestnik NIYaU MIFI. 2018, no. 6, pp. 545-562 (in Russian).
- Kharitonov V.V. Nuclear Energy Development Dynamics. Moscow. NIYaU MIFI Publ., 2014, 328 p. (in Russian).
- RD 31.21.86-82. Time Standards for Refueling the Reactor Core. Available at: https:// meganorm.ru/Index2/1/4293745/4293745560.htm (accessed 15 Apr. 2021) (in Russian).
- Zagorodnikov M.A. Development of transport infrastructure of the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Korporativnoe i Innovatsionnoe Razvitie Ekonomiki Severa: Vestnik Nauchno7Issledovatel’skogo Tsentra Korporativnogo Prava, Upravleniya i Venchurnogo Investirovaniya Syktyvkarskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. 2017, no. 2, pp. 68-73 (in Russian).
- Tsoy L., Legostaev Yu., Kuz’min Yu. Icebreaker of the XXI century or Rusty Iron? Available at: http://www.morvesti.ru/themes/1700/55563/ (accessed Apr. 10, 2021) (in Russian).
- Nesterov N.M. Icebreaking Support in the Western Arctic. Problems and Solutions. Available at: http://sstc.spb.ru/nauchnue-publikacii.pdf (accessed Apr. 10, 2021) (in Russian).
- Bazhenov M., Vetrova A. Prospects and uncertainties of the development of the Northern Sea Route. Available at: http://www.morvesti.ru/ themes1698/81094/ (accessed Apr. 10, 2021) (in Russian).
Link for citing the article: Klauz A.V., Frolov I.E., Kharitonov V.V., Shaeva A.A. Methodology for Calculating the Criteria of Economic Efficiency of Investments in Nuclear Icebreakers. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika. 2021, no. 3, pp. 107-120; DOI: https://doi.org/10.26583/npe.2021.3.09 (in Russian).