Methodology for Calculating the Criteria of Economic Efficiency of Investments in Nuclear Icebreakers
UDC: 621.039.58; 656.61
The authors propose an economic and analytical model for evaluating the criteria of efficiency (profitability) of investments in the projects of innovative nuclear icebreakers of the Northern Sea Route. The model is based on the new analytical representation of the methodology for forecasting the investment project efficiency that is widely used in international practice. The mathematical expression for the net discounted income provides convenient formulas for calculating several investment efficiency criteria for nuclear icebreakers: internal rate of return, minimum annual revenues from icebreaker convoys, discounted payback period, and the sheer volume of delivered cargo. The paper gives estimates of the criteria for the efficiency of investments in Leader class icebreakers that depend on the discount rate of cash flows, capital, and operating costs. It is shown that at such high capital costs, typical for construction of Leader class nuclear icebreakers, the minimum allowable revenue of an icebreaker is a financial burden for ships transporting cargo along the NSR, which also increases rapidly with the growth of discount rate and the reduction of investment payback period. This means that the profitability of the icebreakers is only possible at low discount rates of 2 – 3% per year, that is, at extremely low interest credit. Even with low interest and very optimistic production characteristics of the icebreaker (high speed of navigation, large number of ships in the caravan and their capacity) the payback period will exceed 25 years.
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