Multi-criteria analysis of the efficiency of the scenarios for the development of nuclear power engineering in Russia under conditions of uncertainty of knowledge about the future
Multi-criteria analysis is used in many areas of research where it is required to compare several alternatives for a selected set of criteria. Of particular interest is the application of this method for a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of scenarios for the development of innovative nuclear systems.
The article proposes an approach to the computational substantiation of the step-by-step transfer of the Russian nuclear power industry to the regime of a two-component nuclear power plant with a centralized closed nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) based on the use of the multi-criteria analysis method. At the same time, consideration is given to options for the development of nuclear power in the context of the uncertainty of knowledge about the future. In order to take into account various trends in the development of nuclear power, the authors identify three groups of development scenarios. The first group includes «growing» scenarios in which the number of units and their total installed capacity grow over time. The second group assumes that after a certain time of growth of the installed capacities, the stationary level will be reached, in which there will be no time-dependent changes in power. The third group simulates a decrease in the installed nuclear power capacities in the country after some growth.
To select the most preferable ways of technological development and assess the efficiency of a nuclear power plant, a limited set of system selection criteria and performance indicators are used, covering the economy, export potential, competitiveness, efficient SNF and RW management, natural uranium consumption, and innovative development potential. An important part of this work was a detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the weights and input data used to derive the criteria.
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