Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika

The peer-reviewed scientific and technology journal. ISSN: 0204-3327

Multi-criteria analysis of the efficiency of the scenarios for the development of nuclear power engineering in Russia under conditions of uncertainty of knowledge about the future

9/16/2020 2020 - #03 Current issues in nuclear energy

Zrodnikov A.V. Moseev A. L. Egorov A.F. Dekusar V.M.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26583/npe.2020.3.01

UDC: 621.039.003

Multi-criteria analysis is used in many areas of research where it is required to compare several alternatives for a selected set of criteria. Of particular interest is the application of this method for a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of scenarios for the development of innovative nuclear systems.

The article proposes an approach to the computational substantiation of the step-by-step transfer of the Russian nuclear power industry to the regime of a two-component nuclear power plant with a centralized closed nuclear fuel cycle (NFC) based on the use of the multi-criteria analysis method. At the same time, consideration is given to options for the development of nuclear power in the context of the uncertainty of knowledge about the future. In order to take into account various trends in the development of nuclear power, the authors identify three groups of development scenarios. The first group includes «growing» scenarios in which the number of units and their total installed capacity grow over time. The second group assumes that after a certain time of growth of the installed capacities, the stationary level will be reached, in which there will be no time-dependent changes in power. The third group simulates a decrease in the installed nuclear power capacities in the country after some growth.

To select the most preferable ways of technological development and assess the efficiency of a nuclear power plant, a limited set of system selection criteria and performance indicators are used, covering the economy, export potential, competitiveness, efficient SNF and RW management, natural uranium consumption, and innovative development potential. An important part of this work was a detailed analysis of the uncertainties in the weights and input data used to derive the criteria.


  1. Arzamastsev D.A., Lipes A.V., Myzin A.L. Optimization Models for the Development of Power Systems. Moscow. Vysshaya Shkola Publ., 1987, 272 p. (in Russian).
  2. Framework for Assessing Dynamic Nuclear Energy Systems for Sustainability, Final Report of the INPRO Collaborative Project on Global Architectures of Innovative Nuclear Energy Systems with Thermal and Fast 105 Reactors and Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycles (GAINS), IAEA Nuclear Energy Series No. NP-T-1.14, IAEA, Vienna, 2013, 253 p. Available at: http://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1598_web.pdf (accessed May 29, 2020).
  3. International Atomic Energy Agency, Enhancing benefits of nuclear energy technology innovation through cooperation among countries: final report of the INPRO collaborative project SYNERGIES. IAEA Nuclear Energy Series NF-T-4.9, IAEA, Vienna, 2018. Available at: http://www.iaea.org/INPRO/CPs/SYNERGIES/index.html (accessed May 29, 2020).
  4. IAEA Database on Nuclear Power Reactors. Available at: https://pris.iaea.org/pris/ (accessed May 29, 2020).
  5. Egorov A.F., Korobeynikov V.V. Comparison of innovative nuclear power systems based on the selected key indicators and their weights. IAEA Conference on Fast Reactors and Related Fuel Cycles (FR17). id434. Available at: https://conferences.iaea.org/indico/event/126/abstract-book.pdf (accessed May 29, 2020).
  6. Ponomarev-Stepnoy N.N. Global Nuclear Energy Architecture: Key to Energy Security. Indeks Bezopasnosti. 2011, v. 18, no. 1 (100), pp. 47-60 (in Russian).
  7. Alekseev P.N., Alekseev S.V., Andrianova E.A. et al. Two-Component Nuclear Power System with Thermal and Fast Reactors in a Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle. Ed. by Academician N.N. Ponomarev-Stepnoy. Moscow. Tekhnosfera Publ., 2016, 160 p. (in Russian).
  8. Egorov A.F., Korobeynikov V.V. Assessment of the sensitivity of scenarios for the development of nuclear power in Russia to possible changes in the selected economic parameters: Preprint IPPE-3269. Obninsk. SSC RF-IPPE Publ., 2016, 17 p. (in Russian).
  9. Egorov A.F., Korobeynikov V.V. Application of multicriteria analysis to compare innovative nuclear energy systems. VANT. Ser. Yaderno-Reaktornye Konstanty. 2017, iss. 2, pp. 5-13 (in Russian).
  10. Alekseev P.N., Balanin A.L., Dekusar V.M., Egorov A.F., Klinov D.A., Korobeynikov V.V., Marova E.V., Maslov A.M., Nevinitsa V.A., Staroverov A.I., Fomichenko P.A., Shepelev S.F., Shirokov A.V. Development of physical and technical solutions for the BN-1200 project in the context of increasing the competitiveness of the BN technology. VANT. Ser. Yaderno-Reaktornye Konstanty. 2018, iss. 2, pp. 71-83 (in Russian).
  11. Alekseev P.N., Blandinsky V.Yu., Balanin A.L., Grol A.V., Gulevich A.V., Dekusar V.M., Egorov A.F., Korobeinikov V.V., Marova E.V., Maslov A.M., Moseev A.L., Nevinitsa V.A., Teplov P.S., Farakshin M.R. A multifactorial assessment of the competitiveness of a commercial power unit of the BN type in the energy system of Russia. VANT. Ser. Yaderno-Reaktornye Konstanty. 2019, iss. 3, pp. 45-61 (in Russian).
  12. Egorov A.F., Klinov D.A., Korobeinikov V.V., Moseev A.L., Marova E.V., Shepelev S.F. Results of multicriteria analysis of scenarios for the development of nuclear power taking into account the structure of the power industry in Russia. VANT. Ser. Yaderno-Reaktornye Konstanty. 2017, iss. 4, pp. 4-7 (in Russian).
  13. Alekseev P.N., Blandinsky V.Yu., Balanin A.L., Grol A.V., Nevinitsa V.A., Teplov P.S., Fomichenko P.A., Gulevich A.V., Dekusar V.M., Egorov A.F., Korobeinikov V.V., Moseev A.L., Marova E.V., Maslov A.M., Farakshin M.R., Shepelev S.F., Shirokov A.V. Evaluation of the effectiveness of scenarios for the development of nuclear energy in Russia using multicriteria analysis. Atomnaya Energiya. 2020, iss. 1, pp. 3-6 (in Russian).
  14. Kalashnikov A.G., Moseev A.L., Dekusar V.M., Korobeynikov V.V., Moseev P.A. Development of the CYCLE software package for system analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energgetika. 2016, no. 1, pp. 91-99 (in Russian).

thermal reactors fast reactors closed nuclear fuel cycle MOX fuel uncertainty efficient SNF and RW management export potential competitiveness