Izvestia Vysshikh Uchebnykh Zawedeniy. Yadernaya Energetika

The peer-reviewed scientific and technology journal. ISSN: 0204-3327

Statistical analysis of the nuclear power plant equipment failure data in nonhomogeneous failure flow

10/02/2016 2016 - #03 Global safety, reliability and diagnostics of nuclear power installations

Antonov A.V. Chepurko V.A.

UDC: 519.7:519.23/.24/.25

In the paper systems with the operable state and the down state are considered. Functioning process of technical equipment can be divided into three operating periods. There are a burnin period, a normal life or useful life period and an ageing period. Reliability coefficients of equipment and methods for their calculating depend on the operating period. The failure flow parameter is relatively constant on the useful life period. But we should take into consideration the burnin period with a decreasing failure flow parameter and the ageing period that exhibits an increasing failure flow parameter. In general more complex time dependences can take place. Also we can assume that the repair flow consists of the «nonhomogeneous» (concerning a distribution) repair time. For instance a mean time to repair can gradually rise since an equipment ages and a fault location time and a repair complication rise. The aim of this paper is to develop the new mathematical model that can take into account possible «distortions» of an event flows and allow to calculate reliability coefficients of the systems, which probabilistic characteristics can vary in time. The new mathematical model can take into account possible «distortions» of an event flows by means of a normalizing flow function Ψ. The normalizing flow function model is presented.

Examples of data analysis at each stage of the study on the basis of statistical information about failures element KNK56 control and protection system (CPS) unit EGP6 Bilibino derived from operating experience were performed. On presented algorithm were calculated reliability coefficients for a large group of elements of the reactor control rods EGP6 on the basis of information over a long period of operation (from 1974 to 2014).

References

  1. Bayhelt F., Franken P. The Reliability and Maintenance. Mathematical approach: first with it. Moscow. Radio i svyaz’ Publ., 1988. 392 pp. (in Russian).
  2. Antonov A.V., Nikulin M.S., Nikulin A.M., Chepurko V.A. Theory of reliability. Statistical Models. Moscow. NIC INFRA-M Publ., 2015. 576 p. (in Russian).
  3. GOST 27.002-89 Industrial product dependability. General concepts Terms and Definitions. (in Russian).
  4. Daley D.J., Vere-Jones D. An introduction to the theory of point processes: Vol. 1: Elementary theory and methods. Verlag New York - Berlin - Heidelberg: Springer, 2003. 469 p.
  5. Finkelstein M. Failure rate modelling for reliability and risk. Verlag London Limited: Springer, 2008. 290 p.
  6. Chepurko V.A. Chepurko S.V. Models of nonhomogeneous flows in the renewal theory. Obninsk. INPE Publ., 2012, 164 p. (in Russian)
  7. Berman M. Inhomogeneous and modulated gamma processes. Biometrica. 1981, v. 68, no. 1, pp. 143-152.
  8. Saenko N.B. Accounting for incomplete recovery of elements in the calculation of the reliability of systems. Izvestiya vuzov. Priborostroenie. 1994, v. 37, no. 11-12, pp. 76-79 (in Russian).
  9. Antonov A., Chepurko V. On some characteristics of geometric processes //Journal of Reliability and Statistical Studies; ISSN (Print): 0974-8024, (Online):2229-5666, 2012, v. 5, iss. spec., pp. 1-14.
  10. Lam Y. Geometric processes and replacement problem. Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica. English Series. 1988, v. 4, no. 4, pp. 366-377.
  11. Antonov A., Polyakov A., Chepurko V. Estimation of the model parameters of the geometric process by the method of maximum likelihood. Nadyozhnost’. 2012, no. 3 (42), pp. 33-41 (in Russian).
  12. Chepurko V. Chepurko S. A method for the detection failure rate heterogeneity equipment NPP. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika. 2012, no. 2, pp. 65-73 (in Russian).
  13. Kijima M., Sumita N. A useful generalization of renewal theory: Counting processgoverned by no-negative markovian increments. Journal of Applied Probability. 1986, v. 23,pp. 71-88.
  14. Chumakov I., Antonov A., Chepurko V. Some properties of incomplete recovery Kizhima models. Nadyozhnost’. 2015, no. 3 (54), pp. 3-15 (in Russian).
  15. Lindqvist B.H. The trend renewal process, a useful model for repairable systems. / Tillforlitlighet i reparerbara system. Society of Reliability Engineers, Scandinavian Chapter, Annual Conference, Malino, Sweden. 1993.
  16. Antonov A., Belova K., Chepurko V. On one method of reliability coefficients calculation for objects in non-homogeneous event flows / Mathematical and Statistical Models and Methods in Reliability. Applications to Medicine, Finance, and Quality Control / Ed. By V.V. Rykov, N. Balakrishnan, M.S. Nikulin. –Statistics for Industry and Technology. Springer, 2010, pp. 51-67.
  17. Antonov A.V., Chepurko V.A. The account of ageing effect in operation of the equipment at the stage of nuclear power plant reliability and safety analysis. / Second International Conference on Accelerated life testing in reliability and Quality control «ALT 2008» (University V. Segalen. Bordeaux 2, France). pp. 35-39.
  18. Antonov A., Ivanova K., Chepurko V. Statistical analysis of the failures of nuclear power equipments, taking into account the failure rate heterogeneity. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika. 2011, no. 2, pp.75-87 (in Russian).
  19. Antonov A.V., Chepurko V.A. Estimation of the reliability of the aging systems like the example of the nuclear power industry systems. Nadezhnost’. 2010, no. 1(33), pp.18-29 (in Russian).
  20. Probabilistic analysis of the residual resource of reliability indicators subsystems equipment CPS Bilibino on the basis of information about failures in the period 1974-2014. / Moiseev I.F., Antonov A.V., Nikulin M.S., Nikuli

failure flow, intensity function nonhomogeneous event flow normalizing flow function model (NFF) abstract homogeneous flow counting process aging system juvenescent system renewal equation