Investigation of ecological constraints influence on competitiveness of nuclear power plants
The analysis of economic efficiency of nuclear power sources and competing power plants on organic fuel and renewables is carried out to the period till 2050. Technical and economic indicators of power plants of different types taking into account an interval of their uncertainty are systematized. Competitiveness of power plants of different types was estimated on the basis of their electric energy cost.
Energy cost is presented in the form of the sum of such components: cost of construction, annual operational cost, decommissioning cost, fuel cost, and a payment for emissions. It is shown that without a payment for emissions power sources of all considered types can be competitive in the energy markets (under these or those conditions), including markets in Russia. Under the condition with ecological constraints (a payment for greenhouse gases emissions) nuclear power plants appear the most economic power sources.
Additional comparison of power sources of different types taking into account system effects has been performed with use of the GEM model (Global Energy Model). Calculations show that scales of nuclear energy use have to increase in all three considered scenarios. This growth will be the most essential at rigid ecological constraints – approximately by 4 times to the middle of the century in Russia and 3,5 times in the world.
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