Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya Energetika

The peer-reviewed scientific and technology journal. ISSN: 0204-3327

Investigation of ecological constraints influence on competitiveness of nuclear power plants

10/23/2015 2015 - #03 Current issues in nuclear energy

Marchenko O.V. Solomin S.V.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26583/npe.2015.3.02

UDC: 621.039.003

The analysis of economic efficiency of nuclear power sources and competing power plants on organic fuel and renewables is carried out to the period till 2050. Technical and economic indicators of power plants of different types taking into account an interval of their uncertainty are systematized. Competitiveness of power plants of different types was estimated on the basis of their electric energy cost.

Energy cost is presented in the form of the sum of such components: cost of construction, annual operational cost, decommissioning cost, fuel cost, and a payment for emissions. It is shown that without a payment for emissions power sources of all considered types can be competitive in the energy markets (under these or those conditions), including markets in Russia. Under the condition with ecological constraints (a payment for greenhouse gases emissions) nuclear power plants appear the most economic power sources.

Additional comparison of power sources of different types taking into account system effects has been performed with use of the GEM model (Global Energy Model). Calculations show that scales of nuclear energy use have to increase in all three considered scenarios. This growth will be the most essential at rigid ecological constraints – approximately by 4 times to the middle of the century in Russia and 3,5 times in the world.

References

  1. Climate Change 2014. IPCC Fifht Assessment Synthesis Report, 2014. 139 p.
  2. Ukaz Prezidenta Rossijskoy Federacii «O sokrashhenii vybrosov parnikovyh gazov» № 752 ot 30.09.2013 (The decree of the President of the Russian Federation «About reduction of greenhouse gases emissions» No. 752 of 30.09.2013). Available at: http://www.rg.ru/2013/10/04/eco-dok.html (accessed 4 Oct. 2013) (in Russian).
  3. Belyaev L.S., Marchenko O.V., Filippov S.P., Solomin S.V., Stepanova T.B., Kokorin A.L. World energy and transition to sustainable development. Dordrecht/Boston/London, KluwerAcademic Publishers, 2002. 264 p.
  4. World Energy Outlook. Paris, IEA, 2013. 708 p.
  5. Luckow P., Stanton E., Field S., Biewald B., Jackson S., Fisher J., Wilson R. 2015 Carbon Dioxide Price Forecast. Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, Synapce Energy Economics, Inc., 2015. 39 p.
  6. Marchenko O.V., Solomin S.V. Analiz oblasti ekonomicheskoy effektivnosti vetrodizel’nyh elektrostancii [Economical efficiency analysis of wind-diesel power plant]. Promyshlennaya energetika. 1999, no. 2, pp. 49-53 (in Russian).
  7. Marchenko O.V., Solomin S.V. Analiz ekonomicheskoj effektivnosti vozobnovljaemyh istochnikov energii v decentralizovannyh sistemah jenergosnabzheniya [The analysis of economic effectiveness of renewable energy sources in dezentralized energy system]. Al’ternativnaya energetika i ekologiya (International Scientific Journal for Alternative Energy and Ecology). 2009, no. 5, pp. 78-84 (in Russian).
  8. World energy perspective: cost of energy technologies. London, World Energy Council, 2013. 48 p.
  9. Projected costs of generating electricity. 2010 edition. Paris, International Energy Agency/Nuclear Energy Agency, 2010. 215 p.
  10. Technology Roadmap: Nuclear Energy. 2015 edition. Paris, IEA, 2015. 64 p.
  11. Kononov Yu.D. Analiz i prognoz vozmozhnoj dinamiki cen na toplivo na mirovyh i rossijskih rynkah [The analysis and the forecast of possible dynamics of fuel prices in the world and Russian markets]. Irkutsk, ISEM SO RAN, 2013. 30 p. (in Russian).
  12. Belyaev L.S., Marchenko O.V., Solomin S.V. Issledovanie dolgosrochnyh tendencij razvitiya jenergetiki Rossii i mira [Investigation of long-term trends of Russia and world energy systems development]. Izvestiya RAN. Energetika. 2011, no. 2, pp. 3-11. (in Russian).
  13. Murogov V.M., Ponomarev-Stepnoy N.N. Yadernaya tehnologiya – garant stabil’nosti Rossii v XXI veke [Nuclear Technology – Guarantee of the Stable Development Russia in the 21 Centure]. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya energetika. 2005, no. 2, pp. 3-8 (in Russian).
  14. Zrodnikov A.V. Fast reactors in the energy security for the stable development of Russia. Atomic Energy. 2010, v. 108, no. 4, pp. 230-233.
  15. Poplavsky V.M. Sostoyanie i tendencii razvitiya tehnologii bystryh reaktorov [Status and Trends of the Fast Reactor Technology Development]. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya energetika. 2011, no. 1, pp. 5-15 (in Russian).
  16. Egorov A.V., Korobeynikov V.V., Poplavskaya E.V., Fesenko G.V. Ocenka chuvstvitel’nosti modeli razvitiya jadernoy jenergetiki Rossii k vozmozhnym izmeneniyam vybrannyh jekonomicheskih parametrov [Assessment of Russia Nuclear Power Development Model Sensitivity Analysis to Possible Changes of Selected Economic Parameters]. Izvestiya vuzov. Yadernaya energetika. 2012, no. 3, pp. 53-61 (in Russian).
  17. Kagramanyan V.S., Korobeynikov V.V., Poplavskaya E.V., Belyaev L.S., Marchenko O.V., Solomin S.V. Assessment of the economic risk due to delayed startup of NPP with fast reactors. Atomic Energy. 2013, vol. 114, no. 2, pp. 83-93.
  18. Adamov E.O., Dzhalavyan A.V., Lopatkin A.V., Molokanov N.A., Muravyov E.V., Orlov V.V., Kal’akin S.G., Rachkov V.I., Troyanov V.M., Avrorin E.N., Ivanov V.B., Aleksakhin R.M. Conceptual framework of a strategy for the development of nuclear power in Russia to 2100 // Atomic Energy. 2012, v. 112, no. 6, pp. 391-403.

nuclear energy electricity cost ecological constraints emission cost efficiency energy model forecast